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Understanding green house gases emission dynamics from forest fires in Thailand using predictive models
(2026-02-01)
Shahzad, Fahad
;
Mehmood, Kaleem
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Anees, Shoaib Ahmad
;
Adnan, Muhammad
;
Hussain, Khadim
Forest fires are a major driver of carbon emissions, particularly in tropical regions where climate variability and land use practices intensify their frequency and impact. This study investigates the spatiotemporal trends and emission dynamics of forest fires across Thailand's three dominant vegetation types- Evergreen Broadleaf Forest (EBF), Deciduous Broadleaf Forest (DBF), and Grassland over three climatic seasons (Dry, Hot, and Wet) in the period 2001–2023. Using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's Slope estimator, we observed significant declines in burnt area during the Dry season in EBF and Grasslands, with no consistent trend in DBF. Fire–vegetation interactions revealed seasonally specific effects: positive correlations between fire count and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) were detected in the Wet and the hot seasons in the case of DBF and Grasslands, respectively. Emission analysis showed that CO₂ was the dominant greenhouse gas released, with the Dry season contributing to most emissions, although Hot season emissions have increased over time. Machine learning models Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) explained over 78 % of the variance in CO₂ emissions on test data (R2 = 0.79 for RF, 0.78 for XGBoost), despite higher Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (∼550) on unseen data. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis identified wind components and solar radiation as key predictive variables. Central, Northeastern, and Northern Thailand emerged as emission hotspots. These findings improve our understanding of emission dynamics from tropical fires and underscore the need for region-specific mitigation strategies to inform carbon inventories and climate policy.
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Exploring vegetation health in Southern Thailand under climate stress from temperature and water impacts between 2000 and 2023
(2025-12-01)
Mehmood, Kaleem
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Anees, Shoaib Ahmad
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Shahzad, Fahad
;
Muhammad, Sultan
;
Liu, Qijing
This study provides a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of vegetation health in Southern Thailand from 2000 to 2023, focusing on the impacts of temperature and water stress on vegetation degradation. Using high-resolution Landsat-derived kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST), alongside precipitation (PPT), soil moisture (SM), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and solar radiation (SR), several key indices were derived such as Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The study offers a robust framework to monitor vegetation health under climate stress by integrating satellite-based indices with detailed climate datasets. Our findings reveal significant temperature-induced stress during critical years like 2005 and 2016, with over 60% of the region experiencing vegetation degradation. Long-term trend analysis indicates that while 22.5% of forested areas show signs of recovery, 3.6% continue to degrade, primarily due to persistent temperature extremes and water stress. Soil moisture emerged as a critical driver during the dry season, positively influencing 11.16% of the region, while solar radiation exhibited mixed effects depending on moisture availability. These insights highlight the complex interplay of climatic drivers on vegetation dynamics, particularly in tropical ecosystems. The study underscores the need for adaptive management strategies to enhance resilience against climate extremes, providing valuable guidance for sustainable land management in Southern Thailand.
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Spatiotemporal analysis of surface Urban Heat Island intensity and the role of vegetation in six major Pakistani cities
(2025-03-01)
Anees, Shoaib Ahmad
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Mehmood, Kaleem
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Raza, Syed Imran Haider
;
Pfautsch, Sebastian
;
Shah, Munawar
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon exacerbates thermal discomfort in urban areas and significantly contributes to urban overheating when combined with climate change. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) in six major cities of Pakistan, focusing on the interplay between urban expansion, vegetation cover, and SUHII. To quantify SUHII dynamics, the impact of urban sprawl and vegetation changes was analyzed. The study offers critical insights into the implications for urban planning and policymaking in Pakistan. Using remote sensing data from Landsat satellites, analyzed with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, estimates of SUHII, urban expansion, and vegetation cover were derived. Specifically, imagery from Landsat-5 (2010−2013) and Landsat-8 (2014–2022), obtained from the US Geological Survey (USGS), was employed. Statistical analyses, including Pearson's correlation and linear regression, were conducted to assess relationships between these variables from 2010 to 2022. SUHII was found to increase annually by 0.18 °C in Islamabad and 0.19 °C in Peshawar, with corresponding urban expansion rates of 8.07 km2 (8967.75 pixels) and 1.67 km2 (1860.42 pixels) per year, respectively. Vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) were inversely correlated with SUHII, explaining up to 50 % of the variance in Peshawar. However, weaker correlations in Lahore suggest the presence of additional factors influencing SUHII. A distinct spatial relationship between increased vegetation and cooler areas was observed. For instance, Islamabad has greater vegetation cover and cool zones over 41.5 km2. In contrast, Lahore's hot spots spanned 127.1 km2, compared to Abbottabad's 10.4 km2, underscoring the thermal impact of reduced vegetation. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of urban greening, particularly in Islamabad's neutral thermal regions, in mitigating SUHII. This study offers important insights for urban planners in developing sustainable, climate-resilient cities within similar urban contexts. While the results are specific to Pakistani cities, the role of vegetation in mitigating SUHII may hold broader relevance for urban planning strategies in comparable settings.

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