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Ionospheric gradients in multi-constellation global navigation satellite system signals onboard UAV using GIM and Klobuchar model over Thailand region
(2026-07-01)
Ansari, Kutubuddin
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Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Venkatesh, Kavutarapu
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Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
The effects of the ionosphere on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals have been a focal point of research nowadays. During adverse ionospheric conditions, ionospheric gradients become more pronounced and disruptive compared to quiet days, potentially leading to increased positioning errors or loss of satellite signal lock. We introduce an ionospheric spatial gradient estimation method to detect the anomalous gradients from multi-constellation GNSS signals (i.e., GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo) signals recorded by the onboard sensor of flying real-time kinematic unmanned aerial vehicle (RTK UAV) over the Thailand region. We employ the Klobuchar model and global ionospheric maps (GIMs) for estimating the slant total electron contents (STECs) and the corresponding ionospheric spatial gradients between base station and rover (RTK UAV) receivers among the studied multi-constellation systems. The results show that the STEC values estimated from IGS-GIM are larger than those computed by Klobuchar model. Such kind of gradient variation cannot show a perfect correlation due to limited accuracy of Klobuchar model parameters. As for our analysis, the ionospheric spatial gradients estimated from GPS satellites are higher than those calculated from GLONASS and Galileo satellites due to the smallest differences between the two successive positions of flying rover estimated from GPS satellites. The outcomes from this study complement the multi-GNSS cooperative strategy for monitoring ionospheric gradients, thereby mitigating the adverse effects in dynamic positioning and navigation solutions over low-latitude regions.
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Multi-instrument observations of unseasonal post-sunset equatorial plasma bubbles during two moderate geomagnetic storms in May and June 2024 over East/Southeast Asia
(2025-12-01)
Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Rajana, Siva Sai Kumar
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Vivek, Chiranjeevi G.
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Vankadara, Ramkumar
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Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
This study investigated an unseasonal development of post-sunset EPBs in summer solstice period over the East/Southeast Asian longitude region by using multi-instrument observations during two consecutive moderate geomagnetic storm events (16–17 May 2024 and 28–29 June 2024). The results indicate, formation of EPBs during non-climatological plasma bubble season is primarily driven by sustained southward oriented IMF-Bz in the storm main phase, which facilitated the penetration of eastward electric fields into the equatorial ionosphere. These electric fields uplifted the F-region plasma to altitudes favorable for irregularities growth. Also, noteworthy hemispheric asymmetry is noticed in the formation of EPBs, manifesting more intense occurrence in Southern Hemisphere during the geomagnetic storm of 16–17 May 2024 and extended up to ∼20°S magnetic latitude. During the 28–29 June 2024 geomagnetic storm, EPBs are more prominent in the Northern Hemisphere and reached beyond EIA region up to ∼22°N magnetic latitude. In brief, the EPBs developed initially over the 100°E longitude sector, exhibited eastward drift and thereafter extended to 120°E longitude region during the 16–17 May 2024 geomagnetic storm. During the 28–29 June 2024 geomagnetic storm, EPBs formed over the 120°E longitude region and later drifted to 140°E longitude sector. These findings highlight the dominant role of storm-time electrodynamics in triggering EPBs and emphasize the need for continuous regional monitoring of EPBs to mitigate space weather impacts on satellite-based communication and GNSS systems.
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Multi-Instrument Analysis of Ionospheric Equatorial Plasma Bubbles over the Indian and Southeast Asian Longitudes During the 19–20 April 2024 Geomagnetic Storm
(2025-03-01)
Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Rajana, Siva Sai Kumar
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Vivek, Chiranjeevi G.
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Dabbakuti, Jyothi Ravi Kiran Kumar
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Jamir, Wangshimenla
In this study, we explored the occurrence of near-sunrise equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) and inhibition of dusk-time EPBs during the geomagnetic storm (SYM-Hmin= −139 nT) of 19–20 April 2024 using multi-instrument observations over the Indian and Southeast Asian longitude sectors. The initial phase of this storm commenced around 0530 UT on 19 April 2024 and did not manifest any visible alterations in the ionospheric electric fields during the main phase of the storm, which corresponded to a period between post-sunset to midnight over the study region. However, during the recovery phase of the storm, the IMF Bz suddenly flipped northward and was associated with an overshielding of the penetrating electric fields, which triggered the formation of near-sunrise EPBs. Interestingly, the persistence of EPBs was also noticed for more than three hours after the sunrise terminator. Initially, sunrise EPBs were developed in the Southeast Asian region and later drifted toward the Indian longitude region, along with the sunrise terminator. Moreover, this study suggested that the occurrence of EPBs was suppressed due to the altered storm time electric fields at the dip equatorial region across the 70–90°E longitude sector in the recovery period. This study highlighted that even moderate geomagnetic storms can generate near-sunrise EPBs in a broader longitude sector due to penetrating electric fields in overshielding conditions, which can significantly affect trans-ionospheric signals.
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On the variations in equatorial and low-latitude GPS-TEC and assessment of NeQuick-2, IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 models in the African longitude during solar cycle 24–25
(2025-03-01)
Ogwala, Aghogho
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Akinbuli, Feyisara Fehintoluwa
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Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
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Siddiqui, Md Irfanul Haque
Ionospheric models play a crucial role in understanding, prediction, and mitigation of the effects of ionospheric variability on a wide range of technological and scientific applications relying on space-based services. Conversely, the models need to be routinely updated with newer datasets and specifications to account for the regional discrepancies in the changing ionospheric conditions due to various dominant localized physical and chemical processes. Although there have been ongoing improvements to the extensively utilized empirical model known as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), the newly emerged version (IRI-2020) needs to undergo global testing. In this research, we carried out diurnal and seasonal variations in GPS-TEC and the assessment of some ionospheric models such as IRI-2016 and its recently updated version (IRI-2020), alongside the NeQuick-2 model at 2 stations each in the East, West and South in the equatorial and low-latitude African longitudes during different phases of solar cycles 24–25 (2016 – 2021). Also, we carried out statistical analysis between GPS-TEC and the ionospheric models using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), in order to show the model with the best forecasting capability in the African region. Diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variations in GPS-TEC, NeQuick-2, IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 were observed, showing higher magnitudes in the West, followed by the East in close range and least in the Southern sector of the African longitudes. TEC Variations in some sectors in the African longitudes show a consistent trend in this research. More importantly, there are observed regional differences within the African longitudes owing to the wider coverage of landmass in the equatorial and low latitudes. However, TEC variations in the Northern sector of Africa are not included in the present research. From our observation, NeQuick-2 and IRI-2016 models either underestimate or overestimate GPS-TEC during different phases of the solar cycles at the three sectors in the African longitudes, whereas IRI-2020 shows mostly underestimating characteristics at the three sectors irrespective of solar activity conditions during the study period. Nevertheless, the underestimation or overestimation of NeQuick-2 and IRI-2016, and the underestimation of IRI-2020 are reflected in the RMSE and MAE values. Regrettably, the predictions from IRI-2020 model are not satisfactory at any of the three sectors in the African longitudes and prompt attention of the modeling community for further investigations towards possible refinements in the model specifications.
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Trailing Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrences at a Low-Latitude Location through Multi-GNSS Slant TEC Depletions during the Strong Geomagnetic Storms in the Ascending Phase of the 25th Solar Cycle
(2023-10-01)
Vankadara, Ram Kumar
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Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
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Seemala, Gopi Krishna
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Siddiqui, Md Irfanul Haque
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Panda, Sampad Kumar
The equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are depleted plasma density regions in the ionosphere occurring during the post-sunset hours, associated with the signal fading and scintillation signatures in the trans-ionospheric radio signals. Severe scintillations may critically affect the performance of dynamic systems relying on global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based services. Furthermore, the occurrence of scintillations in the equatorial and low latitudes can be triggered or inhibited during space weather events. In the present study, the possible presence of the EPBs during the geomagnetic storm periods under the 25th solar cycle is investigated using the GNSS-derived total electron content (TEC) depletion characteristics at a low-latitude equatorial ionization anomaly location, i.e., KL University, Guntur (Geographic 16°26′N, 80°37′E and dip 22°32′) in India. The detrended TEC with a specific window size is used to capture the characteristic depletion signatures, indicating the possible presence of the EPBs. Moreover, the TEC depletions, amplitude (S4) and phase scintillation (σ<inf>φ</inf>) indices from multi-constellation GNSS signals are probed to verify the vulnerability of the signals towards the scintillation effects over the region. Observations confirm that all GNSS constellations witness TEC depletions between 15:00 UT and 18:00 UT, which is in good agreement with the recorded scintillation indices. We report characteristic depletion depths (22 to 45 TECU) and depletion times (28 to 48 min) across different constellations confirming the triggering of EPBs during the geomagnetic storm event on 23 April 2023. Unlikely, but the other storm events evidently inhibited TEC depletion, confirming suppressed EPBs. The results suggest that TEC depletions from the traditional geodetic GNSS stations could be used to substantiate the EPB characteristics for developing regional as well as global scintillation mitigation strategies.
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Ionospheric TEC Forecasting over an Indian Low Latitude Location Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning Network
(2022-11-01)
Reddybattula, Kanaka Durga
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Nelapudi, Likhita Sai
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Moses, Mefe
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Devanaboyina, Venkata Ratnam
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Ali, Masood Ashraf
The forecasting of ionospheric electron density has been of great interest to the research scientists and engineers’ community as it significantly influences satellite-based navigation, positioning, and communication applications under the influence of space weather. Hence, the present paper adopts a long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning network model to forecast the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) by exploiting global positioning system (GPS) observables, at a low latitude Indian location in Bangalore (IISC; Geographic 13.03° N and 77.57° E), during the 24th solar cycle. The proposed model uses about eight years of GPS-TEC data (from 2009 to 2017) for training and validation, whereas the data for 2018 was used for independent testing and forecasting of TEC. Apart from the input TEC parameters, the model considers sequential data of solar and geophysical indices to realize the effects. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the forecasted TEC values with the observed and global empirical ionosphere model (international reference ionosphere; IRI-2016) through a set of validation metrics. The analysis of the results during the test period showed that LSTM output closely followed the observed GPS-TEC data with a relatively minimal root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.6149 and the highest correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.992, as compared to IRI-2016. Furthermore, the day-to-day performance of LSTM was validated during the year 2018, inferring that the proposed model outcomes are significantly better than IRI-2016 at the considered location. Implementation of the model at other latitudinal locations of the region is suggested for an efficient regional forecast of TEC across the Indian region. The present work complements efforts towards establishing an efficient regional forecasting system for indices of ionospheric delays and irregularities, which are responsible for degrading static, as well as dynamic, space-based navigation system performances.
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Longitudinal Variations in Equatorial Ionospheric TEC from GPS, Global Ionosphere Map and International Reference Ionosphere-2016 during the Descending and Minimum Phases of Solar Cycle 24
(2022-11-01)
Ogwala, Aghogho
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Oyedokun, Oluwole Johnson
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Ogunmodimu, Olugbenga
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Akala, Andrew Ovie
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Ali, Masood Ashraf
Research on longitudinal discrepancies in local ionospheric variability, especially in equatorial and low-latitude regions, is a focal point of interest for the space weather modeling community. The ionosphere over these regions is influenced by complex electrodynamics, wind, and temperature dynamics that can seriously impact dynamic technological systems such as satellite tracking and positioning, satellite radio communication, and navigation control systems. Here, we researched the longitudinal variability in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) by analyzing observed global positioning system (GPS)-derived TEC values along with those extracted from the most reliable global ionospheric maps (GIMs) and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2016) model at selected stations in the vicinity of the magnetic equator along the American, African, and Asian longitude sectors. The period of study covered the descending (2016–2017) and deep solar minimum (2018–2019) years in the 24th solar cycle. Apart from the decreasing trend of the TEC from the descending to deep solar minimum period irrespective of season and longitude sector, the results showed a relatively higher magnitude of TEC in the African longitude than the other two longitude sectors. Despite evident overestimation and underestimations of TEC in both models, GIM predictions generally looked better in terms of observed variation patterns, especially in the African longitude. The study also highlights the seasonal and semiannual effects of longitudinal variations in TEC, manifesting in local time offsets and some peculiar anomalies, which seemed to be different from previously reported results, especially during the solar minimum years at the three longitude sectors. The insignificant effects of longitudinal variations on the equinoctial asymmetry are attributed to the diverse electron density distribution and ionospheric morphology at the three longitude sectors that will prompt further investigations in the future. The outcomes from this study may augment the past efforts of scientists to understand the seasonal effects of the longitudinal variations in TEC, thereby complementing the improvements of ionospheric representations in global ionosphere models and maps.
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Signatures of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles and Ionospheric Scintillations from Magnetometer and GNSS Observations in the Indian Longitudes during the Space Weather Events of Early September 2017
(2022-02-01)
Vankadara, Ram Kumar
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Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Amory-Mazaudier, Christine
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Fleury, Rolland
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Devananboyina, Venkata Ratnam
Scintillation due to ionospheric plasma irregularities remains a challenging task for the space science community as it can severely threaten the dynamic systems relying on space-based navigation services. In the present paper, we probe the ionospheric current and plasma irregularity characteristics from a latitudinal arrangement of magnetometers and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations from the equator to the far low latitude location over the Indian longitudes, during the severe space weather events of 6–10 September 2017 that are associated with the strongest and consecutive solar flares in the 24th solar cycle. The night-time influence of partial ring current signatures in ASYH and the daytime influence of the disturbances in the ionospheric E region electric currents (Diono) are highlighted during the event. The total electron content (TEC) from the latitudinal GNSS observables indicate a perturbed equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) condition on 7 September, due to a sequence of M-class solar flares and associated prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs), whereas the suppressed EIA on 8 September with an inverted equatorial electrojet (EEJ) suggests the driving disturbance dynamo electric current (Ddyn) corresponding to disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs) penetration in the E region and additional contributions from the plausible storm-time compositional changes (O/N2) in the F-region. The concurrent analysis of the Diono and EEJ strengths help in identifying the pre-reversal effect (PRE) condition to seed the development of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) during the local evening sector on the storm day. The severity of ionospheric irregularities at different latitudes is revealed from the occurrence rate of the rate of change of TEC index (ROTI) variations. Further, the investigations of the hourly maximum absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of ROTI from the reference quiet days’ levels and the timestamps of ROTI peak magnitudes substantiate the severity, latitudinal time lag in the peak of irregularity, and poleward expansion of EPBs and associated scintillations. The key findings from this study strengthen the understanding of evolution and the drifting characteristics of plasma irregularities over the Indian low latitudes.
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Morphologies of ionospheric-equivalent slab-thickness and scale height over equatorial latitude in Africa
(2022-01-01)
Odeyemi, Olumide O.
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Adeniyi, Jacob O.
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Oyeyemi, Elijah O.
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Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
Accurate representation of ionospheric equivalent slab thickness (τ) and scale height (Hm) plays a crucial role in characterizing the complex dynamics of topside and bottomside ionospheric constituents. In the present work, we examined the corresponding morphologies of ionospheric profile parameters with collocated global positioning system (GPS) and Digisonde Portable Sounder (DPS) setups at an equatorial location in west Africa Ilorin (8.50°N, 4.68°E), during a low solar activity year 2010. The extracted τ from GPS and DPS in selected quiet periods confirm it to be a first-order measure of Hm over Africa. The seasonal analysis of τ shows substantial enhancement in the magnitude during the post-sunset and solstice seasons, of which December solstice manifests relatively higher values than June solstice. This result could be associated with the elevation of the meridional wind and drift in the parameters, which are more substantial during the post-noon and solstices. Therefore, at solstices, the post-night increase could indicate solar cycle dynamics during HSA (high solar activity) and LSA (low solar activity). However, the extracted Hm from its relationship with τ did not show visible effects of dynamics in E × B plasma drift and the meridional wind. In our study, a decline in morphologies of Hm and τ from December solstice to June solstice through the equinox is not consistent with the existing observations at mid-latitude. The results would complement the relationships between bottomside and topside profile peak parameters and dynamics of ionospheric constituents for a realistic representation and modeling of the ionosphere over African equatorial and low latitude regions. Thus, it also contributes to the global effort of improving ionospheric prediction and forecasting models.
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Total electron content prediction using singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average approach
(2022-01-01)
Dabbakuti, J. R.K.Kumar
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Yarrakula, Mallika
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Panda, Sampad Kumar
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Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
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Haq, Mohd Anul
Continuous monitoring of ionospheric behavior and subsequent development or improvement of models for the prediction of its parameters with consistent accuracy remains an ongoing challenge. In this sense, an integrated approach by combining the signal extraction technique Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) is presented in this work to predict the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) values that are responsible for causing ionospheric delays in the trans-ionospheric signal propagation associated with satellite-based communication, navigation, and timing applications. In general, SSA is a nonparametric spectral estimation procedure that decomposes the signals into interpretable and physically significant components. The observed TEC from two Global Positioning System (GPS) stations across the low latitude Saudi Arabian region are considered during the year 2017 that falls in the descending phase of solar cycle-24. The performance of the proposed hybrid model is evaluated by comparing with the sole estimation from the ARMA model and the observed GPS–TEC dataset for two different geomagnetic conditions: a) the regular geomagnetically quiet period of 15 to 29 December, 2017 (Ap < 24 and Dst > − 30 nT) and b) the geomagnetic storm period from 7 to 9 September, 2017 (Dst min = − 142 nT). The corresponding average Precision, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed SSA–ARMA model predictions are 1.79 TECU, 1.23 TECU, and 13.02%. In contrast, the respective values in the exclusive ARMA model are 2.01 TECU, 1.37 TECU, 14.42% at Oman station. The corresponding values for Magna station are 0.92 TECU, 0.61 TECU, and 10.76% (SSA–ARMA) and 1.01 TECU, 0.75 TECU, and 11.33% (ARMA). The results show an improved computational efficiency with minor improvement in the TEC predictions with the proposed SSA–ARMA method compared to the sole employment of the ARMA model by disregarding the extraneous components.

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