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Author: search.filters.author.Abadi, PrayitnoHas files: No

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    Complex Ionospheric Irregularity Echoes Observed by Low Latitude Long Range Ionospheric Radar
    (2026-01-01)
    Li, Yuxiao
    ;
    Hu, Lianhuan
    ;
    Li, Guozhu
    ;
    Ning, Baiqi
    ;
    Dai, Guofeng
    Using the Low lAtitude long Range Ionospheric raDar (LARID) at Dongfang (19.2°N, 108.8°E), Hainan Island, China, we report a unique case of complex ionospheric irregularities observed on 9 June 2024. The most interesting aspect is the first-time long-range (∼2,000 km) detection of daytime ionospheric irregularities and post-sunset band-like irregularity structures by HF radar at low latitudes. By incorporating VHF radar and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) rate of total electron content index (ROTI) observations, the radio wave propagation modes of the ionospheric irregularity events observed by LARID and evolution of these ionospheric irregularities were analyzed. The daytime ionospheric irregularity echoes observed by LARID over the Indian Ocean exhibited westward drift, evident in both echo patterns and Doppler velocities. These ionospheric echoes were likely backscattered from E region field aligned irregularities by the “downleg” of the 1-hop HF ray path. The post-sunset irregularity echoes observed by LARID over Indian Ocean manifested as a band-like structure. This structure was closely attached to the bottom of ground/sea scatter echoes and showed the same range variation as the ground/sea scatters. GNSS ROTI observation revealed that irregularities primarily appeared south of the magnetic equator and drifted eastward across the eastern longitudes in later hours. Analysis indicates that the displacement of small-scale irregularities within the equatorial plasma bubble event along the magnetic field likely contributed to the band-like irregularity structure observed by LARID and the asymmetric irregularity distribution observed by GNSS.
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    Post-Sunrise Ionospheric Irregularities in Southeast Asia During the Geomagnetic Storm on 19–20 April 2024
    (2025-08-01)
    Abadi, Prayitno
    ;
    Muafiry, Ihsan Naufal
    ;
    Pratama, Teguh Nugraha
    ;
    Putra, Angga Yolanda
    ;
    Faturahman, Agri
    We present new insights into post-sunrise ionospheric irregularities in Southeast Asia during the intense geomagnetic storm of 19–20 April 2024. By utilizing Total Electron Content (TEC) and Rate of TEC Change Index (ROTI) maps, along with ionosondes, we identified the emergence of post-sunset Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs)—plasma depletion structures and irregularities—in western Southeast Asia on 19 April. These EPBs moved eastward, and the irregularities dissipated before midnight after the EPBs covered approximately 10° of longitude. Interestingly, plasma density depletion structures persisted and turned westward after midnight until post-sunrise the following day. Concurrently, an increase in F-region height from midnight to sunrise, possibly induced by the storm’s electric field, facilitated the regeneration of irregularities in the residual plasma depletions during the post-sunrise period. The significant increase in F-region height was particularly pronounced in western Southeast Asia. As a result, post-sunrise irregularities expanded their latitudinal structure while propagating westward. These findings suggest that areas with decayed plasma depletion structures from post-sunset EPBs that last past midnight could be sites for creating post-sunrise irregularities during geomagnetic storms. The storm-induced electric fields produce EPBs and ionospheric irregularities at longitudes where the surviving plasma depletion structures of post-sunset EPBs are present.
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    Assessing the potential of ionosonde for forecasting post-sunset equatorial spread F: an observational experiment in Southeast Asia
    (2023-12-01)
    Abadi, Prayitno
    ;
    Ali Ahmad, Umar
    ;
    Otsuka, Yuichi
    ;
    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    ;
    Almahi, Alif
    The occurrence of equatorial spread F (ESF) has the potential to detrimentally impact space-based technological systems. This study investigates the utility of ionosondes in forecasting the incidence of post-sunset ESF in the zonal direction, utilizing observational data obtained from four ionosondes located near the magnetic Equator in Southeast Asia. Data were collected during the equinox seasons (March–April and September–October) between 2003 and 2020. To establish a relationship between the probability of post-sunset ESF occurrence and the evening vertical plasma drift (v), a logistic regression model was employed. Post-sunset ESF occurrence is defined as the presence of ESF during the time window between 19:00 and 21:00 LT, while v is derived from the average time derivative of virtual heights during the interval from 18:30 to 19:00 LT. Results indicate that the probability of post-sunset ESF occurrence approaches zero, signifying that ESF is unlikely to develop when v is negative. Conversely, when v exceeds 30 m/s, the probability of post-sunset ESF occurrence surpasses 0.87, indicating that ESF occurs almost invariably. The likelihood of post-sunset ESF occurrence reaches 1 when v equals or exceeds 40 m/s. Utilizing this model, the study determined that a single ionosonde positioned at the Equator can effectively forecast the incidence of post-sunset ESF up to a longitudinal distance of 30° from its location. The accuracy of ionosondes in predicting post-sunset ESF occurrence above their respective locations is approximately 0.80, with a 10% decrease in accuracy when forecasting ESF occurrence at longitudinal distances of 30°. In conclusion, this study enhances our understanding of the link between the evening vertical plasma drift and the manifestation of post-sunset ESF by leveraging ionosonde data. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights into the recommended coverage range of ionosondes for predicting post-sunset ESF occurrence in the zonal direction, which can be employed to fortify regional space weather services. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.].
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    Modeling Post-Sunset Equatorial Spread-F Occurrence as a Function of Evening Upward Plasma Drift Using Logistic Regression, Deduced from Ionosondes in Southeast Asia
    (2022-04-01)
    Abadi, Prayitno
    ;
    Ahmad, Umar Ali
    ;
    Otsuka, Yuichi
    ;
    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    ;
    Martiningrum, Dyah Rahayu
    The occurrence of post-sunset equatorial spread-F (ESF) could have detrimental effects on trans-ionospheric radio wave propagation used in modern communications systems. This problem calls for a simple but robust model that accurately predicts the occurrence of post-sunset ESF. Logistic regression was implemented to model the daily occurrence of post-sunset ESF as a function of the evening upward plasma drift (v). The use of logistic regression is formalized by ŷ = 1/[1 + exp(−z)], where ŷ represents the probability of post-sunset ESF occurrence, and z is a linear function containing v. The value of v is derived from the vertical motion of the bottom side of the F-region in the evening equatorial ionosphere, which is observed by the ionosondes in Southeast Asia. Data points (938) of v and post-sunset ESF occurrence were collected in the equinox seasons from 2003 to 2016. The training set used 70% of the dataset to derive z and ŷ and the remaining 30% was used to test the performance of ŷ. The expression z = −2.25 + 0.14v was obtained from the training set, and ŷ ≥ 0.5 (v ≥ ~16.1 m/s) and ŷ < 0.5 (v < ~16.1 m/s) represented the occurrence and non-occurrence of ESF, respectively, with an accuracy of ~0.8 and a true skill score (TSS) of ~0.6. Similarly, in the testing set, ŷ shows an accuracy of ~0.8 and a TSS of ~0.6. Further analysis suggested that the performance of the z-function can be reliable in the daily F<inf>10.7</inf> levels ranging from 60 to 140 solar flux units. The z-function implemented in the logistic regression (ŷ) found in this study is a novel technique to predict the post-sunset ESF occurrence. The performance consistency between the training set and the testing set concludes that the z-function and the ŷ values of the proposed model could be a simple and robust mathematical model for daily nowcasting the occurrence or non-occurrence of post-sunset ESFs.