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Forecasting maize yield from growth parameters using machine learning in a biochar-inorganic fertilizer amended soil under drip irrigation
(2025-12-01)
Faloye, Oluwaseun Temitope
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Ajayi, Ayodele Ebenezer
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Sinsamutpadung, Natdanai
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Adeyeri, Oluwafemi
The combined application of biochar and inorganic fertilizers has demonstrated significant potential to enhance crop productivity under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. However, predictive modeling approaches utilizing machine learning (ML) to simulate field outcomes under diverse agronomic scenarios remain understudied. This study addresses two critical objectives: (i) to evaluate the efficacy of ML models—Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Boosted Trees (BT)—in predicting maize grain yieldin biochar-inorganic fertizer amended soil under drip irrigation; and (ii) to identify the growth stage(s) and ML models that deliver the most accurate predictions. A three-year factorial field experiment was conducted during dry seasons, testing five biochar rates (0, 3, 6, 10 and 20 t/ha), two fertilizer levels (0 and 300 kg/ha), and deficit irrigation treatments (60%, 80%, and 100% of full irrigation). Growth parameters were measured at vegetative (35 days after planting – DAP), flowering stage (49 DAP), and maturity stage (77 DAP), with grain yield recorded at harvest (90 DAP). The measured growth parameters at the different DAP were used for the grain yield forecast. 70, 15 and 15% of the dataset were used for model training, validation and testing, respectively. Field results revealed progressive increases in growth parameters from vegetative to maturity stages, with treatment efficacy following the order: control < biochar-only < fertilizer-only < combined biochar-fertilizer. ML predictions mirrored this hierarchy, with ANN achieving superior accuracy (R² = 0.73–0.85, RMSE = 0.43–0.76, NRMSE = 0.095–0.17 at maturity) compared to SVM and BT. Predictive performance was weakest at the vegetative stage (35 DAP) but improved during flowering (49 DAP) and maturity (77 DAP), underscoring the importance of later growth data for reliable yield forecasting. This study demonstrates that ML models, particularly ANN, can effectively predict maize yield using accessible growth metrics, offering a cost- and labor-efficient complement to traditional field research. By enabling rapid scenario analysis, such models empower stakeholders to optimize resource allocation and inform crop management decisions under varying irrigation and soil amendment strategies.
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Evaluation of various machine learning-based bias correction approaches for NASA POWER air temperatures: a case study of Nigeria
(2025-01-01)
Faloye, Oluwaseun Temitope
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Ogunrinde, Akinwale T.
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Ajayi, Ayodele Ebenezer
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Oguntunde, Philip Gbenro
Remotely sensed air temperature data from NASA POWER are widely used in regions with scarce climatic observations, particularly for agricultural applications such as calculating crop water requirements. This study employed a suite of machine learning (ML) algorithms to correct biases in NASA POWER air temperature outputs, including multiple support vector regression (SVR) variants—Linear SVR, Quadratic SVR, Cubic SVR, Fine Gaussian SVR, Medium Gaussian SVR, Coarse Gaussian SVR—and ensemble decision tree models: bagged trees (BGT) and boosted trees (BT). The objective of this study was to assess the ability of different ML algorithms to reduce biases in NASA POWER air temperature data, with the broader goal of identifying the most suitable ML method for air temperature bias correction in Nigeria. For this analysis, we used daily air temperature records from seven meteorological stations across diverse regions of Nigeria. The performance of NASA POWER minimum and maximum air temperature datasets was evaluated using standard error metrics. Subsequent application of ML algorithms significantly improved data accuracy: the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the corrected outputs was mostly below 10%, indicating excellent predictive performance when ML was integrated. Among the SVR variants tested, Fine Gaussian SVR consistently yielded the best prediction results. This finding suggests that Fine Gaussian SVR is a robust tool for enhancing the reliability of air temperature data—critical for improving the accuracy of crop water requirement calculations in regions where in-situ air temperature observations are limited.
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Modeling and Optimization of Maize Yield and Water Use Efficiency under Biochar, Inorganic Fertilizer and Irrigation Using Principal Component Analysis
(2024-10-01)
Faloye, Oluwaseun Temitope
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Ajayi, Ayodele Ebenezer
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Oguntunde, Philip Gbenro
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Fasina, Abayomi
This study was conducted to predict the grain yield of a maize crop from easy-to-measure growth parameters and select the best treatment combinations of biochar, inorganic fertilizer, and irrigation for the maize grain yield and water use efficiency (WUE) using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Two rates of biochar (0 and 20 t ha−1) and fertilizer (0 and 300 kg ha−1) were applied to the soil, with maize crop planted, and subjected to deficit irrigation at 60, 80, and 100% of full irrigation amounts (FIA). Maize growth parameters (number of leaves—NL, leaf area—LA, leaf area index—LAI, and plant height—PH) were measured weekly. The results showed that the developed principal component regression (PCR) from the easy-to-measure growth parameters were strong and moderate in predicting the maize yield and WUE, with coefficient of determination; r2 values of 0.92 and 0.56, respectively. Using the PCA technique, the integration of irrigation with the least amount of water (60% FAI) with biochar (20 t ha−1) and fertilizer (300 kg ha−1) produced the highest ranking on grain yield and water use efficiency. This optimization technique showed that with the adoption of the integrative approach, 40% of irrigation water could be saved for other agricultural purposes
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Evaluating Impacts of Biochar and Inorganic Fertilizer Applications on Soil Quality and Maize Yield Using Principal Component Analysis
(2024-08-01)
Faloye, Oluwaseun Temitope
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Ajayi, Ayodele Ebenezer
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Akintola, Olayiwola Akin
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Oguntunde, Philip Gbenro
A 2-year field experiment was conducted to test the effects of individual and co-application of biochar and inorganic fertilizer on soil quality using the principal component analysis (PCA) technique. The dry season field experiments were performed with biochar applied at 0 and 20 t ha−1, and fertilizer at 300 and 0 kg ha−1 (control). The factorial combinations of the above-mentioned treatments were subjected to irrigation at 60, 80, and 100% of irrigation amounts (IAs). Soil hydro-physical and chemical properties and grain yield were determined at harvest. Results from the PCA indicated that the soil total nitrogen (N) and moisture content (MC) were the soil properties mostly affecting the grain yield. The amendments’ effects on the soil physico-chemical properties and maize yield were in the order control < biochar < fertilizer < biochar + fertilizer. The derived comprehensive soil quality index (CSQI) from the PCA showed that the soil quality increased by 76, 100, and 200% in treatments individually applied with biochar, inorganic fertilizer, and the co-applications. This study therefore showed that the PCA revealed the actual dynamics in soil properties, in terms of the SQI upon the soil amendment addition, as well as their relationship with maize yield under different weather conditions.

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