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    Multi-instrument observations of unseasonal post-sunset equatorial plasma bubbles during two moderate geomagnetic storms in May and June 2024 over East/Southeast Asia
    (2025-12-01)
    Panda, Sampad Kumar
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    Rajana, Siva Sai Kumar
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    Vivek, Chiranjeevi G.
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    Vankadara, Ramkumar
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    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    This study investigated an unseasonal development of post-sunset EPBs in summer solstice period over the East/Southeast Asian longitude region by using multi-instrument observations during two consecutive moderate geomagnetic storm events (16–17 May 2024 and 28–29 June 2024). The results indicate, formation of EPBs during non-climatological plasma bubble season is primarily driven by sustained southward oriented IMF-Bz in the storm main phase, which facilitated the penetration of eastward electric fields into the equatorial ionosphere. These electric fields uplifted the F-region plasma to altitudes favorable for irregularities growth. Also, noteworthy hemispheric asymmetry is noticed in the formation of EPBs, manifesting more intense occurrence in Southern Hemisphere during the geomagnetic storm of 16–17 May 2024 and extended up to ∼20°S magnetic latitude. During the 28–29 June 2024 geomagnetic storm, EPBs are more prominent in the Northern Hemisphere and reached beyond EIA region up to ∼22°N magnetic latitude. In brief, the EPBs developed initially over the 100°E longitude sector, exhibited eastward drift and thereafter extended to 120°E longitude region during the 16–17 May 2024 geomagnetic storm. During the 28–29 June 2024 geomagnetic storm, EPBs formed over the 120°E longitude region and later drifted to 140°E longitude sector. These findings highlight the dominant role of storm-time electrodynamics in triggering EPBs and emphasize the need for continuous regional monitoring of EPBs to mitigate space weather impacts on satellite-based communication and GNSS systems.
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    Variations in Ionospheric Total Electron Content and Scintillation at GPS stations in Uzbekistan and China during the Annular Solar Eclipse on June 21, 2020
    (2025-05-01)
    Eshkuvatov, H. E.
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    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
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    Ahmedov, B. J.
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    Tillayev, Y. A.
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    Ruziev, Z. J.
    This study presents a novel investigation into the distinct ionospheric variations observed over China and Uzbekistan during the annular solar eclipse on June 21, 2020. For the first time, we demonstrate the influence of this celestial event on Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements obtained from GPS satellites. We analyzed fluctuations in TEC and the Ionospheric Scintillation Index (S4) across six strategically selected sites—three in Uzbekistan (MTAL, KIT3, MADK) and three in China (JFNG, LHAZ, BJFS) located near the eclipse path, with obscuration levels of 52%, 57%, 58%, in Uzbekistan and 92%, 94% and 95% in China. Our study involved continuous monitoring of ionospheric parameters over three days, from June 20 to June 22, 2020. Results indicated a significant TEC depletion ranging from 10% to 30% on the day of the eclipse. The analysis reveals that both TEC levels and the S4 scintillation index experienced notable reductions during the event, attributed to the decreased ionizing radiation. These findings enhance our understanding of ionospheric dynamics in response to solar eclipses and have important implications for satellite communication and navigation systems.
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    Exploring Electromagnetic Wave Propagation Through the Ionosphere Over Seismic Active Zones
    (2025-03-01)
    Eshkuvatov, Husan
    ;
    Ahmedov, Bobomurat
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    Shah, Munawar
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    Begmatova, Dilfuza
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    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    This study presents an analytical solution for the electric current formation in the lower ionosphere as a result of charged aerosols being ejected from the ground before the earthquakes. The impact of ionosphere-related processes on radio wave propagation through the atmosphere is explored by investigating the resulting energy losses of electromagnetic waves traversing this ionospheric layer. Theoretical considerations suggest that these processes may generate detectable electromagnetic signals, offering insights into seismic precursors. The effects of electron density inhomogeneities in the upper ionospheric layers on electromagnetic wave properties such as group delay, Faraday rotation, and Doppler frequency shift are examined. Understanding these effects aims to improve ionospheric monitoring techniques to detect pre-earthquake disturbances. To validate the theoretical findings, a comparison is made with the empirical data from various sources, including VLF transmitters and GPS-TEC measurements. This comparative analysis underscores the potential of electromagnetic phenomena as credible indicators of impending seismic events.
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    On the variations in equatorial and low-latitude GPS-TEC and assessment of NeQuick-2, IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 models in the African longitude during solar cycle 24–25
    (2025-03-01)
    Ogwala, Aghogho
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    Akinbuli, Feyisara Fehintoluwa
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    Panda, Sampad Kumar
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    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    ;
    Siddiqui, Md Irfanul Haque
    Ionospheric models play a crucial role in understanding, prediction, and mitigation of the effects of ionospheric variability on a wide range of technological and scientific applications relying on space-based services. Conversely, the models need to be routinely updated with newer datasets and specifications to account for the regional discrepancies in the changing ionospheric conditions due to various dominant localized physical and chemical processes. Although there have been ongoing improvements to the extensively utilized empirical model known as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), the newly emerged version (IRI-2020) needs to undergo global testing. In this research, we carried out diurnal and seasonal variations in GPS-TEC and the assessment of some ionospheric models such as IRI-2016 and its recently updated version (IRI-2020), alongside the NeQuick-2 model at 2 stations each in the East, West and South in the equatorial and low-latitude African longitudes during different phases of solar cycles 24–25 (2016 – 2021). Also, we carried out statistical analysis between GPS-TEC and the ionospheric models using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), in order to show the model with the best forecasting capability in the African region. Diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variations in GPS-TEC, NeQuick-2, IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 were observed, showing higher magnitudes in the West, followed by the East in close range and least in the Southern sector of the African longitudes. TEC Variations in some sectors in the African longitudes show a consistent trend in this research. More importantly, there are observed regional differences within the African longitudes owing to the wider coverage of landmass in the equatorial and low latitudes. However, TEC variations in the Northern sector of Africa are not included in the present research. From our observation, NeQuick-2 and IRI-2016 models either underestimate or overestimate GPS-TEC during different phases of the solar cycles at the three sectors in the African longitudes, whereas IRI-2020 shows mostly underestimating characteristics at the three sectors irrespective of solar activity conditions during the study period. Nevertheless, the underestimation or overestimation of NeQuick-2 and IRI-2016, and the underestimation of IRI-2020 are reflected in the RMSE and MAE values. Regrettably, the predictions from IRI-2020 model are not satisfactory at any of the three sectors in the African longitudes and prompt attention of the modeling community for further investigations towards possible refinements in the model specifications.
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    Possible atmospheric-ionospheric precursors of the 2020 Hotan China earthquake from various satellites
    (2024-10-01)
    Hameed, Amna
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    Shah, Munawar
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    Ghaffar, Bushra
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    Riaz, Salma
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    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    The earthquake (EQ) precursors from satellites data portray an image of the energy propagation from the lithosphere to atmosphere and then to the ionosphere. Previous studies have often presented detailed discussion on different precursors at various altitudes. However, this study aimed to investigate the anomalies at various altitudes associated with the Hotan China EQ (hypocentral depth: 10 km, latitude 35.5°N, longitude 82.4°E). The goal was to identify pre-and post-seismic anomalies statistically in the conjunction with the wavelet transformation. We observed possible precursors in the atmosphere such as variations in aerosol optical depth, tropopause pressure, relative humidity, latent heat flux, and outgoing longwave radiation in a window of 5–10 days before the seismic event. Moreover, the total electron content had precursors during quiet geomagnetic storm conditions (−20 < Dst ≤ − 40 nT, Kp ≤ 3) beyond the bound within 5–10 days. These findings highlight the potential of using atmospheric and ionospheric parameters to detect seismic anomalies as EQ precursors for improved EQ early warning systems.
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    Assessment of improvement of the IRI model for foF2 variability over three latitudes in different hemispheres during low and high solar activities
    (2021-03-01)
    Timoçin, Erdinç
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    Temuçin, Hüseyin
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    Inyurt, Samed
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    Shah, Munawar
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    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    This paper discusses the diurnal and seasonal variations of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the improvement of performance of the IRI-2016 model in predicting foF2 over three latitudes in different hemispheres during low and high solar activities. We extracted the foF2 data from six ionosonde stations which are Manila (14.7<sup>o</sup>N, 121.1<sup>o</sup>E), Yamagawa (31.2<sup>o</sup>N, 130.6<sup>o</sup>E), Yakutsk (62.0<sup>o</sup>N,129.6<sup>o</sup>E), Townsville (19.6<sup>o</sup>S, 146.8<sup>o</sup>E), Hobart (42.9<sup>o</sup>S, 147.3<sup>o</sup>E) and Terre Adelie (66.6<sup>o</sup>S, 140.0<sup>o</sup>E). The data of both low solar activity (LSA) period and high solar activity (HSA) periods were divided into three seasons as Northern Summer (May, June, July and August), Equinoxes (March, April, September and October) and Northern Winter (November, December, January and February). The present study showed that the IRI-2016 performance is strongly dependent on the solar activity, latitude, season, local time and hemisphere. For both hemispheres, the foF2 values at low latitude station are larger than those at middle latitude station, whereas the foF2 values at middle latitude station are larger than those at high latitude station. The agreement between IRI2016-modelled foF2 and foF2 measurements on all stations selected in the northern hemisphere is best for North Summer and worst for North Winter. For northern hemisphere, the values of relative deviations during both solar activities are largest in high latitudes and smallest in middle latitudes. As for southern hemisphere, the values of relative deviations during LSA are largest in middle latitudes and smallest in high latitudes, whereas the values of relative deviations during HSA are largest in low latitudes and smallest in high latitudes. It is thought that the relative deviations in the observed foF2 values are caused by solar activity that strongly alter chemical and electromagnetic processes in the ionosphere. These results are important for future improvements depending on solar activity and seasons in the IRI model for foF2 values over three latitudes in different hemispheres.