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Author: search.filters.author.Seeboonruang, UmaSubject: search.filters.subject.climate change

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    Projected Climate Change Effects on Global Vegetation Growth: A Machine Learning Approach
    (2023-12-01)
    Nguyen, Kieu Anh
    ;
    Seeboonruang, Uma
    ;
    Chen, Walter
    In this study, a machine learning model was used to investigate the potential consequences of climate change on vegetation growth. The methodology involved analyzing the historical Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and future climate projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Data from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) dataset for the period 1981–2000 were used to train the machine learning model, while CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate projections from 2021–2100 were employed to predict future NDVI values under different SSPs. The study results revealed that the global mean NDVI is projected to experience a significant increase from the period 1981–2000 to the period 2021–2040. Following this, the mean NDVI slightly increases under SSP126 and SSP245 while decreasing substantially under SSP370 and SSP585. In the near-term span of 2021–2040, the average NDVI value of SSP585 slightly exceeds that of SSP245 and SSP370, suggesting a positive vegetation development in response to a more pronounced temperature increase in the near term. However, if the trajectory of SSP585 persists, the mean NDVI will commence a decline over the subsequent three periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2080–2100) with a faster speed than that of SSP370. This decline is attributed to the adverse effects of a rapid temperature rise on vegetation. Based on the examination of individual continents, it is projected that the NDVI values in Africa, South America, and Oceania will decline over time, except under the scenario SSP126 during 2081–2100. On the other hand, the NDVI values in North America and Europe are anticipated to increase, with the exception of the scenario SSP585 during 2081–2100. Additionally, Asia is expected to follow an increasing trend, except under the scenario SSP126 during 2081–2100. In the larger scope, our research findings carry substantial implications for biodiversity preservation, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and efficient environmental management. The utilization of machine learning technology holds the potential to accurately predict future changes in vegetation growth and pinpoint areas where intervention is imperative.
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    Wavelet relationship between climate variability and deep groundwater fluctuation in Thailand’s Central Plains
    (2018-02-01)
    Seeboonruang, Uma
    Groundwater is constantly under direct and indirect pressures from the anthropogenic effects, long-term climate change, and climate variability. This research investigates the association, in the time-frequency domain, between the groundwater fluctuations in Thailand’s Lower Chao Phraya Basin and specific climate variability forces: the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Asian Summer Monsoons (ASM). The analysis was carried out using the wavelet method and the findings presented in the form of the complete, global, and local wavelet spectrums. In addition, the Pearson correlation was utilized to establish the linkages between the groundwater and the climate variability forces. The results indicated that the deep groundwater signals of the Lower Chao Phraya Basin were linked to the ENSO, IOD and ASM with the absolute correlation coefficients in excess of 0.5. Moreover, the recent climatic indices exerted greater influence on the groundwater than in the past, given the former’s correlation coefficients of 0.9 on average. By comparison, the deep groundwater was strongly associated with the recent ENSO and ASM but weakly linked to the IOD, with the absolute coefficients of around 0.5. The findings revealed the resilience of the deep groundwater under such high frequency signal conditions as the seasonal and tidal oscillations. Moreover, the results showed that the groundwater could be an alternative source of water supply during periods of droughts in the region.