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    Item type:Publication,
    Equatorial spread-F forecasting model with local factors using the long short-term memory network
    (2023-12-01)
    Thammavongsy, Phimmasone
    ;
    Supnithi, Pornchai
    ;
    Myint, Lin Min Min
    ;
    Hozumi, Kornyanat
    ;
    Lakanchanh, Donekeo
    The predictability of the nighttime equatorial spread-F (ESF) occurrences is essential to the ionospheric disturbance warning system. In this work, we propose ESF forecasting models using two deep learning techniques: artificial neural network (ANN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The ANN and LSTM models are trained with the ionogram data from equinoctial months in 2008 to 2018 at Chumphon station (CPN), Thailand near the magnetic equator, where the ESF onset typically occurs, and they are tested with the ionogram data from 2019. These models are trained especially with new local input parameters such as vertical drift velocity of the F-layer height (Vd) and atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) collected at CPN station together with global parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity. We analyze the ESF forecasting models in terms of monthly probability, daily probability and occurrence, and diurnal predictions. The proposed LSTM model can achieve the 85.4% accuracy when the local parameters: Vd and AGW are utilized. The LSTM model outperforms the ANN, particularly in February, March, April, and October. The results show that the AGW parameter plays a significant role in improvements of the LSTM model during post-midnight. When compared to the IRI-2016 model, the proposed LSTM model can provide lower discrepancies from observational data. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.].
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    Item type:Publication,
    Investigating the F2-layer peak height of IRI-2016 model at the equatorial station during the deepest solar activity for 70 years ago
    (2023-01-01)
    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    ;
    Taugtragoonpaisan, Udomsit
    ;
    Myint, Lin Min Min
    ;
    Supnithi, Pornchai
    The paper investigates the F2-layer peak height (hmF2) of IRI-2016 model at Sao Luis on the magnetic Equator in 2019. Since the deepest solar activity occurred surprisingly in year 2019 for 70 years ago, hence, the IRI-2016 model prediction should be investigated to know the anomalous ionosphere and the deviations between the observation and IRI prediction. The hmF2 is selected to be studied in this work. Our studied results show that the observed hmF2 and the three hmF2 models of IRI-2016 prediction generally show the similar variations only about 60% during this deepest solar activity and the variations of the four kinds of studied hmF2 values show the similar trends for all seasons, except June solstice. The diurnal variation of hmF2_Giro show three peaks for December solstice months and the equinoctial months, while they show four peaks amazingly in June solstice. The hmF2_SHU is the best option that can agree reasonably well to the observed hmF2 at Sao Luis, excluding the pre-sunrise hmF2 peak for all seasons and a very deep trough in June solstice.
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    Item type:Publication,
    A New Method for Computing Ionogram-Based TEC Based on Digisonde data for Disaster Prevention
    (2020-03-01)
    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    ;
    Duangsuwan, Sarun
    ;
    Supnithi, Pornchai
    ;
    Srisamoodkham, Worachai
    This paper presents a new approach for calculating the ionogram-based total electron content so as to be applied alternatively for alarming and preventing the disasters, for example, earthquake, tsunami or other space objectives. The proposed ITEC is estimated using the analytical expression of NeQuick model, the autoscaled Digisonde data, and a new variable "m" of 1. The results are show that 1) the proposed B0 is close to the B0-obs of Digisonde compared to the B0-IRI and the B2bot of the NeQuick model, 2) the diurnal variation of B0-Pro is the same as that of B0-obs compared to those of B0-IRI and B2bot, 3) the proposed ITEC is also close to the ITEC of Digisonde and TEC-iri, excluding the observed GPS TEC, and 4) all of the studied TEC values behave similar diurnal variations. Since the proposed ITEC is based on the analytical functions, the improvement of TEC-B0-Pro can be conducted reliably in order to close to the GPS TEC possibly and apply it optionally to correct the positioning errors for GNSS and aviation systems.
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    Item type:Publication,
    Improving the modeling of bottomside thickness parameters over midlatitudes and high latitudes
    (2020-02-01)
    Jamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
    ;
    Supnithi, Pornchai
    ;
    Kenpankho, Prasert
    ;
    Wichaipanich, Noraset
    ;
    Nayak, Chinmaya
    This paper investigates bottomside thickness parameters at Digisonde stations over midlatitude and high latitude regions, and compares the diurnal, seasonal, and solar activity variations in 2014 and 2009. The geographic latitudes of high latitude considered in this work are located beyond ±60° and those of midlatitude are located between ±40° and ±60°. The IRI-modeled B0 with ABT-2009 option (B0_IRI) are also examined and compared with four kinds of the B0 values, i.e., the observed B0 (B0_obs) from GIRO, the computed B0 following to Jamjareegulgarn et al. (2017a) (B0_old), the calculated B0 with a correction factor regarding to Jamjareegulgarn et al. (2017b) (B0_new), and the B0 with an average correction factor (B0_new_c_av). The average correction factors are proposed additionally in this work so as to assist occasionally the experimental B0 nonexistence of Digisonde which are equal to 0.2658 and 0.2058 for midlatitudes and high latitudes, respectively. Results show that the diurnal variations of B0_new and B0_new_c_av are in a good agreement with those of B0_obs evidently compared with those of B0_IRI and B0_old at every station during the three seasons over high and middle latitudes. During the three seasons, the diurnal variations of B0_new_c_av show similar trends and are close to one another with the B0_obs and the B0_new with small deviations. The differences between the B0obs and the B0_new_c_av also show similar trends and are close to one another with those between the B0obs and the B0_new. In contrast, the B0_IRI with ABT-2009 option seems to predict the B0 values poorly during the three seasons at high latitudes and some seasons at midlatitudes. The proposed B0_new is useful for computing approximately the observed B0 and the ionogram-based total electron content (ITEC) of Digisonde, and the plasma scale height over midlatitudes and high latitudes.