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Real-time interpretable and cluster-stratified lightGBM framework for high-precision concrete strength prediction and instantaneous mixture optimization
(2026-08-29)
Elsheikh, Ahmed
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Hematibahar, Mohammad
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Jueyendah, Sebghatullah
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Aljarah, Abdelmalek H.
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Martins, Carlos Humberto
This study presents a real-time, interpretable framework based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm for the accurate prediction and optimization of 28-day concrete compressive strength (Fc), validated using a dataset of 500 concrete mixtures. The proposed model was benchmarked against seven widely used regression algorithms, including linear regression (LR), ridge regression (RR), random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector regression (SVR), decision tree (DT), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), to ensure a comprehensive comparative evaluation. The LightGBM model demonstrated superior predictive performance relative to the benchmark models, achieving an RMSE of 6.11 MPa and an R² of 0.951 during the initial evaluation. Model robustness and generalization capability were further verified using a 10 × 10 repeated k-fold cross-validation procedure, yielding stable results (R² = 0.940 ± 0.017; RMSE = 6.37 ± 0.49 MPa). To capture heterogeneity in mixture compositions, K-means clustering was applied to partition the dataset into four distinct mixture regimes, within which stratified LightGBM models further improved predictive accuracy, reducing RMSE to 3.7–5.1 MPa and achieving R² values exceeding 0.97. Model interpretability was enhanced through global and regime-specific SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analyses, which provided transparent and physically consistent insights into feature contributions, consistently identifying cement as the dominant positive factor and water as the primary negative driver of CS. Furthermore, an interactive web-based prediction engine was developed to enable instantaneous strength prediction, real-time sensitivity analysis, 95% prediction interval estimation, and specification-driven mixture optimization with millisecond-level computational efficiency. Comprehensive diagnostic evaluations, including Taylor diagrams, residual control charts, calibration plots, and prediction-interval validation, confirmed the statistical reliability and practical applicability of the proposed framework. Overall, the developed LightGBM-based system provides an accurate, interpretable, and scalable decision-support tool for data-driven concrete mix design and performance optimization.
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Modeling the compressive strength behavior of concrete reinforced with basalt fiber
(2025-12-01)
Onyelowe, Kennedy C.
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Ebid, Ahmed M.
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Hanandeh, Shadi
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Awoyera, Paul
This research investigates the compressive strength behavior of basalt fiber-reinforced concrete (BFRC) using machine learning models to optimize predictions and enhance its practical applications. The study incorporates various modeling techniques, including Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Trees, and Random Forest (RF), to evaluate their predictive capabilities. Basalt Fiber Reinforced Concrete (BFRC) is a composite material that incorporates basalt fibers into traditional concrete to enhance its mechanical and durability properties. The use of basalt fibers, derived from natural volcanic rocks, aligns with sustainability goals due to their eco-friendliness, cost-effectiveness, and high performance. BFRC combines structural excellence with sustainability, making it an ideal material for modern construction practices. Its ability to enhance performance, reduce environmental impact, and ensure long-term durability positions it as a pivotal solution for sustainable infrastructure development. The developed models were used to predict compressive strength of basalt fiber concrete (Cs_bf) using the concrete mixture contents, age, and fiber dimensions. All the developed models were created using “Orange Data Mining” software version 3.36. A total of three hundred and nine (309) records were collected from literature for compressive strength for different mixing ratios of basalt fiber concrete with concrete at different ages. Each record contains the following data: C-Cement content (Kg/m3), FA-Fly ash content (Kg/m3), W-Water content (Kg/m3), SP-Super-plasticizer content (Kg/m3), CAg-Coarse aggregates content (Kg/m3), FAg-Fine aggregates content (Kg/m3), Age-The concrete age at testing (days), L_b-length of basalt fibers (mm), d_bf-Diameter of basalt fibers (µm), V_bf-Volume content of basalt fibers (%) and Cs_bf-Compressive strength of basalt fibre concrete (MPa). The collected records were divided into training set (249 records≈80%) and validation set (60 records≈ 20%). At the end of the process, it can be shown that the present research work outclassed other ML techniques applied in the previous research paper, which reported the utilization of the same size of data entries and basalt reinforced concrete constituents. Taylor chart for measured compressive strength of basalt fiber reinforced concrete predicted with ANN, KNN, SVM, Tree and RF is presented for comparing the performance of predictive models by illustrating three key statistical measures simultaneously: the correlation coefficient (R), the normalized standard deviation (σ), and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). Finally, it can be deduced that after considering the performance indices of the selected ensemble and classification models utilized in this present research paper, all the developed modes have almost the same excellent level of accuracy 95%, but ANN, KNN, and SVR produced R2 of 0.98 each with KNN producing MAE of 1.4 MPa, and MSE of 2.5 MPa to outperform ANN and SVR which produced MAE of 1.55 MPa/MSE of 4.1 MPa and MAE of 1.6 MPa/MSE of 3.85 MPa, respectively. Three techniques were used to estimate the impact of each input on the compressive strength, namely correlation matrix, sensitivity analysis and relative importance chart.
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Data-driven framework for prediction of mechanical properties of waste glass aggregates concrete
(2025-12-01)
Onyelowe, Kennedy C.
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Hanandeh, Shadi
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Ebid, Ahmed M.
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Imran, Hamza
This research presents a novel data-driven framework for predicting the mechanical properties of waste glass aggregate concrete using six advanced metaheuristic optimization algorithms: Bat Algorithm (Bat), Cuckoo Search Algorithm (Cuckoo), Elephant Herding Optimization (Elephant), Firefly Algorithm (Firefly), Rhinoceros Optimization Algorithm (Rhino), and Gray Wolf Optimizer (Wolf). The study evaluates these models based on their ability to predict compressive strength (Fc), tensile strength (Ft), density, and slump using key statistical performance indicators such as SSE, MAE, MSE, RMSE, accuracy, R2, and KGE. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using Hoffman and Gardener’s method as well as the SHAP technique to determine the most influential parameter in the prediction process. Results indicate that the Firefly and Wolf algorithms exhibited the highest prediction accuracy across all four properties, with Wolf emerging as the overall best-performing model due to its superior generalization ability, lower error rates, and high correlation with experimental results. Among the input parameters, the water-to-binder ratio was identified as the most influential factor affecting the mechanical properties of waste glass aggregate concrete, as demonstrated by both sensitivity analysis methods. This highlights the critical role of optimal water content in achieving desirable strength and workability in sustainable concrete mixtures. The study’s novelty lies in the comparative assessment of multiple optimization algorithms applied to waste-based concrete, an approach that has not been extensively explored in previous research. Additionally, the integration of SHAP analysis for feature importance ranking provides an interpretable machine learning approach to concrete mix design, which enhances decision-making for engineers and researchers. The practical implications of this research extend to sustainable machine learning-based concrete design, where AI-driven optimization can help reduce the reliance on conventional trial-and-error methods. By utilizing waste glass aggregates, the study supports circular economy initiatives in construction, reducing environmental impact while maintaining structural performance. The proposed models can be implemented in real-world scenarios to optimize mix designs for large-scale applications, leading to cost-effective and eco-friendly construction materials. This research advances the field of smart construction by demonstrating the effectiveness of machine learning in sustainable material engineering, paving the way for future AI-assisted innovations in the industry.
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Optimizing the utilization of Metakaolin in pre-cured geopolymer concrete using ensemble and symbolic regressions
(2025-12-01)
Onyelowe, Kennedy C.
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Kamchoom, Viroon
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Ebid, Ahmed M.
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Hanandeh, Shadi
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Llamuca Llamuca, José Luis
The optimization of metakaolin (MK) in pre-cured geopolymer concrete involves developing predictive models to capture the interplay of various influencing factors and guide mix design for improved compressive strength and sustainability. Ensemble methods and symbolic regression are promising approaches for this task due to their complementary strengths and solving challenges associated with repeated experiments in the laboratory. Choosing machine learning predictions over repeated, expensive, and time-consuming experiments in research projects, such as optimizing the utilization of metakaolin in pre-cured geopolymer concrete, presents a paradigm shift in how data-driven insights can revolutionize material development. The integration of ensemble and symbolic regression models enables researchers to derive valuable predictions and optimize critical performance parameters efficiently. In this research work, 235 records were collected from extensive literature search for compressive strength for different mixing ratios of pre-cured metakaolin-based geopolymer concrete with concrete at different ages. Each record contains MK: The content of metakaolin (kg/m3), SHS: Sodium hydroxide solution content (kg/m3), SHSM: Sodium hydroxide solution molarity (Mole), SSS: Sodium silicate solution content (kg/m3), W: Extra water content (not including the water in alkaline solutions) (kg/m3), W/S: Water to Solid ratio (Total water content / Solid part of activator solutions + MK), Na<inf>2</inf>O/Al<inf>2</inf>O<inf>3</inf>: Sodium oxide to aluminium oxide ratio, SiO<inf>2</inf>/Al<inf>2</inf>O<inf>3</inf>: Silicon oxide to aluminium oxide ratio, H<inf>2</inf>O/Na<inf>2</inf>O: Water to Sodium oxide ratio, CA/FA: Coarse to Fine aggregate ratio, CAg: The content of coarse aggregates (kg/m3), SP: The content of super-plasticizer (kg/m3), PCC: 0 for no pre-curing, 1 for pre-curing at 60 °C, and 2 for pre-curing at 80 °C, CT: Curing temperature (°C), Age: The concrete age at testing (days) and CS: Compressive strength (MPa). The collected records were portioned into training set (180 records≈75%) and validation set (55 records≈ 25%) and modeled with ensemble and symbolic regression methods. At the end of the model work, performance metrics were used to evaluate the models’ ability and Hoffman and Gardener’s sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the impact of the variables on the compressive strength of the pre-cured geopolymer concrete mixed with metakaolin. GB and KNN models became the decisive models with excellent performance which outclassed others and the sensitivity analysis indicated that SHSM, SSS, W/S, and Na<inf>2</inf>O/Al<inf>2</inf>O<inf>3</inf> are the most influential to the predicted compressive strength.

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