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Dengue Disease Transmission Model in the Central and the Other Regions in Thailand
(2025-10-06)
Pongsumpun, Puntani
The disease has occurred between Aedes mosquitoes and people, called as dengue disease. The transmission of this disease between the central region and the other regions are different. We formulated the mathematical model for this disease by considering human and vector populations. Human is separated as Susceptible, infectious, and recovered population. The vector population is divided into susceptible and infectious population. We considered the spread of dengue disease in two regions. The mathematical model is analyzed. The steady states are found in the study. The condition for the stability of our steady states is determined from experiments. The numerical solutions are present in the study. The way for controlling dengue transmission is identified and possible solutions are discussed.
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Mathematical model of DF and DHF cases in dengue infection
(2025-10-06)
Pongsumpun, Puntani
Dengue disease is contacted to people by biting of infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The dengue infectious person is separated into dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. This study formulates the mathematical model that can be described the transmission of dengue disease. The standard dynamical modelling method is used for analysis our model. The parameters are found for reducing the transmission of dengue disease. The transmission rates of dengue virus, the rate of change from dengue fever to dengue hemorrhagic fever and the recovery rate are influence to the transmission of dengue disease.
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A fractional derivative model of the dynamic of dengue transmission based on seasonal factors in Thailand
(2025-03-15)
Lamwong, Jiraporn
;
Pongsumpun, Puntani
Climate variability affects the changes in controlling diseases transferred by insects. An increase in the population, the growth of communities, and a lack of public health infrastructure bring about the return of diseases of which insects are carriers, one of the illness issues. Therefore, the disease control is significant to help reduce the burden on the government and strengthen the country's public health structure. This research proposes a novel approach to modeling dengue fever dynamics, we employ a fractional derivative model with the Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo derivative, which offers a more accurate representation of real-world disease dynamics compared to traditional integer-order models. Basic qualifications are proposed. Equilibrium points and basic reproduction numbers are analyzed. The next-generation matrix method is used to identify the transmission. Besides, parameter sensitivity analysis is performed to learn about factors affecting input parameter values' effects on the basic reproduction number. It was found that the most common parameter affecting the transmission was the biting rate of mosquitoes was 1. In addition, the existence and uniqueness of the solution are examined using the Banach fixed point theorem. The Toufik–Atangana method is used for the numerical examination of a fractional version of the proposed model. We compared different values of fractional-order α=0.965, 0.975, 0.985, 0.995 and 1 it was found that when the order of derivatives decreases, the transmission shall decrease accordingly. This research provides valuable insights for developing effective control strategies to reduce the burden of dengue fever and strengthen public health systems.
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Does Bangkok have a central role in the dengue dynamics of Thailand?
(2020-01-13)
Xu, Zhiwei
;
Bambrick, Hilary
;
Pongsumpun, Puntani
;
Ming Tang, I.
;
Yakob, Laith
Background: Bangkok plays a central role in the commerce of Thailand. This study aimed to characterize the district-level spatial-temporal patterns of dengue in Thailand and explore if a dengue peak in Bangkok led the peaks of dengue in other Thai provinces. Methods: Monthly dengue data at district level in Thailand from January 2004 to December 2017 were obtained and used to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of dengue in Thailand. As our seasonal decomposition and cross-correlation analyses showed that dengue in Bangkok peaked in November, which was a few months after the dengue peak in most other provinces, we used a time-series generalized linear model to explore if there was another province in which the dengue case number was most predictive of dengue case numbers in other Thai provinces. Results: The highest district-level annual dengue incidence rates (per 10,000) in the three time periods (i.e. 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2017) were 58.08 (Samphanthawong), 85.93 (Mueang Krabi), and 66.60 (Mae Sariang), respectively. Dengue incidence rates in the western part of Northern Thailand, southern part of Central Thailand, southern part of Eastern Thailand, and Southern Thailand were higher than in other regions. Dengue in most districts of Thailand peaked in June, July or August, but dengue peaks in all districts of Bangkok occurred in November. The number of dengue cases in Nakhon Ratchasima was most predictive of the number of dengue cases in other provinces in Thailand by a one-month lag. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the dengue peak in Bangkok did not lead the peaks of dengue in other Thai provinces. Future research exploring how changes in socio-ecological factors (e.g. road network and climate factors) in Nakhon Ratchasima have affected the transmission of dengue in Thailand might shed some new light on the prevention and control of dengue.
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Mathematical model for 4 serotypes of dengue virus with vaccination
(2018-12-01)
Lamwong, Jiraporn
;
Pongsumpun, Puntani
In this study, we formulate the SIR model to consider the transmission cycle between two population groups; Human and mosquito populations. We are interested in the cases of unvaccinated and vaccinated where human populations are infected from DEN1, DEN2, DEN3 and DEN4. For mosquito population, we divided it into susceptible and infected populations. The model is analyzed by using dynamical modeling method. The basic reproductive number is obtained from next generation matrix. If the basic reproductive number is less than one, the solutions of our model converge to the disease free steady state. The solutions of our model oscillate to the endemic steady state for the basic reproductive number is greater than one. The numerical solutions are found to support our analytical results.
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The dynamical model of dengue vertical transmission
(2017-01-01)
Pongsumpun, Puntani
Dengue disease is usually found in many parts of the world, including Africa, Asia, South America and Australia. Dengue disease can pass from one individual to another by two distinct mechanisms such as horizontal transmission and vertical transmission. In horizontal transmission, susceptible individuals can be infected by direct or indirect contacts with infectious individuals who are stays at the same time. Vertical transmission means to direct transmission from infected parents to their offspring before or during birth. In this study, the dynamical model of dengue disease was formulated by considering the vertical transmission in Aedes mosquitoes. The analysis of our model was given. The results of this study should introduce the alternative ways to reduce the dengue outbreak.

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