Forecasting Models for Thailand's Electrical Appliances Export Values

Abstract

This research aimed to study forecasting models for Thailand's electrical appliances export values. Thailand's monthly electrical appliances export values were gathered from the Information Technology and Communication Center, Ministry of Commerce, from January 2006 to November 2022. The data from January 2006 to December 2021 were used to construct and select the forecasting models, and the remaining were used for measuring the model's accuracy. Since the electrical appliances export values showed trends and seasonal variation, the researcher selected the Holt-Winters method with various initial settings, the Box-Jenkins method, and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks (LSTM) for constructing models. The forecasting models were chosen by minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as a criterion. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was employed to measure the accuracy of the forecasting model. The study revealed that the Box-Jenkins model gave the appropriate forecasting model for Thailand's electrical appliances export values and gained a MAPE of 8.0%.