Changes in Carcass Condemnation During a Six-Year Transition from Antibiotic-Based to Antibiotic-Free Broiler Production in Thailand: A Bayesian Structural Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

The transition from antibiotic-based (AB) to antibiotic-free (ABF) broiler production represents a major shift in poultry management, with potential implications for flock health, welfare, and processing outcomes. This study evaluated its impact on condemnation percentage (%condemnation) using Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) analysis. Data from a Thai integrator comprised 105,899 truckload-level records (2015–2020) across 260 contract farms. The AB period (2015–2017) served as the baseline, and the ABF period (2018–2020) was assessed using counterfactual projections. Time-series decomposition and change-point analysis revealed an increasing trend in %condemnation during the early phase of ABF implementation, followed by a decline in 2020, with five structural shifts detected. The BSTS model estimated an absolute effect of +1.10% (95% CI: −1.50 to 3.80; p = 0.207) and a relative effect of +95% (95% CI: −38% to 657%), indicating no statistically significant causal impact. The transient increase may reflect short-term adaptation challenges, whereas subsequent stabilization may be associated with adaptation to ABF production and other concurrent management changes. Overall, the transition from AB to ABF production did not significantly affect %condemnation. Adaptive management measures were implemented as a company-wide policy but were not directly evaluated within the BSTS framework.