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Urban rainfall in the Capitals of Brazil: Variability, trend, and wavelet analysis
Author(s)
Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco de
Correia Filho, Washington Luiz Félix
Monteiro, Lua da Silva
Shah, Munawar
Hafeez, Amna
Gois, Givanildo de
Lyra, Gustavo Bastos
Carvalho, Marcel Abreu de
Barros Santiago, Dimas de
Souza, Amaury de
Mendes, David
Souza Costa, Carlos Eduardo Aguiar de
Blanco, Claudio José Cavalcante
Zeri, Marcelo
Pimentel, Luiz Cláudio Gomes
Silva, Elania Barros da
Date Issued
April 1, 2022
Type
Article
Abstract
The patterns of urban rainfall in Brazil's capitals are critical, due to population growth and extreme weather. Therefore, the objectives are: i) to identify homogeneous rainfall groups and meteorological systems, ii) to evaluate the trend of the monthly rainfall time series and iii) to apply wavelet analysis to estimate the variance at different frequencies in the rainfall series in the capitals of the Brazil. Monthly rainfall data during 1960–2020 for 27 stations located in the capitals of Brazil were used. The data were flawed, and data imputation (mtsdi package) was applied via Fully Conditional Specification (FCS). Rainfall data were submitted to descriptive, exploratory statistics (boxplot), multivariate analysis (Cluster Analysis - CA) and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Seven CA methods (Ward, Single, Complete, Average, McQuity, Median and Centroid) were tested using the cophenetic correlation coefficient (CCC) with a significance level of 5%, the Average method obtained CCC > 0.81 (S). The CA identified three homogeneous regions (G1, G2 and G3) in the capitals of Brazil. The G1 group is formed by the capitals of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB), except for Boa Vista, (North of Brazil - NB). The G2 group is the largest group formed by the capitals of the Midwest (MWB), Southeast (SEB) and South (SB) of Brazil. The G3 group is the smallest group, with the capitals of the NB and some of the NEB. The capitals with the category of significant growth trend were only Porto Alegre and Florianópolis (SB), Vitória (SEB) and Belém (NB). The category of non-significant increase trend prevailed in most capitals of Brazil, with emphasis on the corridor formed between the NB and the Center-South, except for Natal (NEB). The without trend category prevailed in the North, Northeast and Midwest regions of Brazil. Monthly precipitation analyzes for trend detection purposes via Wavelet Analysis showed that ENSO phases are significant in rainfall variability in Brazilian capitals.
Citation
Atmospheric Research, 267, 2022