A BEHAVIOR–CLIMATE COUPLED SIR MODEL FOR DENGUE TRANSMISSION: A DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH FOR BANGLADESH

Abstract

We investigate the joint roles of climate variability and human preventive behavior in dengue transmission in Bangladesh by developing a Behavior–Climate Coupled Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (BC–SIR) model. The model integrates a climate suitability index derived from rainfall and temperature with a behavioral compliance variable that represents both adoption and fatigue of preventive actions. The transmission rate is jointly modulated by climate and behavior, enabling data-informed parameter estimation. We establish positivity and boundedness of solutions, derive the basic reproduction number ℛ0, and analyze the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis identifies climate suitability and behavioral efficacy as key drivers of transmission intensity. Numerical experiments indicate that sustained behavioral adherence can substantially mitigate outbreaks even under favorable climatic conditions. The BC–SIR framework provides a flexible basis for incorporating environmental and behavioral factors into dengue control strategies.