Loading...
Developing data driven framework to model earthquake induced liquefaction potential of granular terrain by machine learning classification models
Author(s)
Date Issued
December 1, 2025
Type
Article
Abstract
Earthquake-inducedliquefaction of soils poses a serious georisk in geotechnical designs, construction and the application of geotechnical structures around the world. In this study, the applicability of three soft computing models for liquefaction classification, a topic of significant importance within the fields of geotechnical and earthquake engineering has been evaluated. Twelve input parameters are used to classify the liquefaction potential for 234 data sets collected from an earthquake-induced liquefaction prone granular material environment. For developing the SVM_Poly, SVM_RBK models, an extensive number of trials were conducted using various combinations of C and d for polynomial kernels and C and ∂ for radial basis function kernel-based support vector machines (SVMs) utilizing user-defined parameters. In the same way, several experiments were conducted with a fixed value of C and ∂ kernel specific parameters in order to determine an appropriate value of error-insensitive zone (∋).Similarly, for the random forest classifier (RFC) model, the number of variables used (m) and the number of trees to be grown (k) are two user-defined parameters. These optimum values of m and k parameters are fixed using trial and error process and the same fixed values. The best model was developed as evidence from the confusion matrixes and statistical indicators. The calculated values of confusion matrixes and statistical indicators for training and testing shows that an accuracy of 0.89 indicates the model is correct in its predictions 89% of the time. A sensitivity of 0.85 signifies the model correctly identifies 85% of actual positive instances, while a specificity of 0.94 implies correct identification of 94% of actual negative instances. A precision of 0.94 suggests that when the model predicts a positive instance, it is correct 94% of the time. The Phi Correlation Coefficient, with a value of 0.82, indicates a strong positive correlation between predicted and actual values.Furthermore, the model exhibits a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.2351, reflecting a relatively low average error in predictions. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value of 0.3115 indicates better accuracy in predicting the target variable.Finally, all the developed models exhibit promising performance across various evaluation metrics, with low error measures (MAE and RMSE), high accuracy, and strong performance in correctly identifying both positive and negative instances, as evidenced by sensitivity and specificity. The high precision and Phi Correlation Coefficient further affirm the reliability and accuracy of the model’s predictions. However, among the three models FRC model is the best for classifying the liquefaction. The novelty of this research lies in its comparative evaluation and optimization of SVM_Poly, SVM_RBK, and RFC models using a comprehensive set of seismic and soil parameters to accurately classify earthquake-induced liquefaction potential, with the RFC model demonstrating superior predictive performance.
Citation
Scientific Reports, 15(1), 2025