Event index computation for forecasting case study: Car sales in Thailand

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dc.contributor.authorRattanametawee, Witchaya
dc.contributor.authorLeenawong, Chartchai
dc.date.accessioned2026-08-06T10:30:12Z
dc.date.available2026-08-06T10:30:12Z
dc.date.issued2020-12-01
dc.description.abstractDue to the impact of special events, both positive and negative, on the sales data, the ordinary Time-series Decomposition (TSD) forecasting model cannot merely capture these effects, even with the added seasonality and trends. Therefore, in this research, a new method for computing the event indices, representing the unusual fluctuations for a certain period in the time series, is proposed in order for it to be incorporated into TSD, alongside the conventional trend, seasonal, and cyclical components. A case study of subcompact car sales monthly data in Thailand during the years 2011-2018 is examined as for that time period contains the 2011 nationwide big flood reflecting the negative impact, as well as the nation’s tax-incentive first-car buyer scheme reflecting the positive impact on the dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used as an accuracy measure of the proposed forecasting model and it illustrates the promising results in the end.
dc.identifier.citationThai Journal of Mathematics, 18(4), 2079-2091, 2020
dc.identifier.issn16860209
dc.identifier.other2-s2.0-85101156864
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.kmitl.ac.th/handle/123456789/11401
dc.sourceThai Journal of Mathematics
dc.subjectCar sales
dc.subjectDecomposition method
dc.subjectEvent index
dc.subjectTime series forecasting
dc.titleEvent index computation for forecasting case study: Car sales in Thailand
dc.typeArticle

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