Identification and Removal of Negative Biomass Samples via Scatter Plot Analysis to Improve GWP Predictive Modeling

Abstract

Accurate prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from biomass constituents is essential for evaluating the sustainability of bioenergy sources. However, the inclusion of biomass samples with weak or negative correlation to key elemental components such as Carbon (C). Hydrogen (H). Nitrogen (N). and Oxygen (O)—can reduce model accuracy and lead to misleading conclusions. This study utilizes scatter plot regression analysis to evaluate and remove "negative biomass samples." defined as those with consistently low R 2 values across constituent-GWP relationships using HHV = 0.2949C + 0.82 50H developed for wood biomass by Yin. Regression models were generated for each biomass species using elemental concentrations as predictors of GWP. Notably, several non-wood species (e.g.. Zea Mays-Shell. Bagasse. Bamboo) exhibited very low R- values (often <0.05) for model between elemental composition and GWP. where all elemental correlations indicated weak predictive relationships. In contrast, wood-based species such as Alnus demonstrated significantly higher R 2 values, especially with Carbon (R 2 = 0.69). Hydrogen (R 2 = 0.57). and Oxygen (R 2 = 0.68), suggesting a stronger linear influence on GWP. Removing these low-contributing samples improved the clarity and reliability of the predictive model related to HHV and each type of element (C.H.N and O) as evidenced by a sharper regression slope of a graph plotted between predicted GWP and measured GWP of positive species and better fit (increased R 2 ) for the remaining samples. These results highlight the value of preliminary scatter plot analysis in identifying biomass species that obscure rather than support predictive modeling. This filtering step ultimately enhances the robustness and inteipretability of constituent-based GWP prediction frameworks, particularly when applying FT-XIR spectroscopy and chemometric modelling.