Advanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Accurate short-term wind power forecasting plays a critical role in maintaining grid stability and enhancing the efficient utilization of renewable energy, particularly as wind energy continues to contribute increasingly to global electricity generation. This study explores and analyzes two forecasting approaches—Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), aiming to improve predictive accuracy. Both models utilize identical historical wind farm datasets and are trained, tested, and validated using the MATLAB R2023b platform. The research findings demonstrate that both ANN and ANFIS are well-suited for short-term wind power forecasting; however, ANFIS exhibits superior predictive accuracy compared to ANN. Specifically, the coefficient of determination (R2) values for ANN and ANFIS are 0.973 and 0.985, respectively. In terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ANN records 7.82e-03 during training and 7.44e-03 during testing, whereas ANFIS achieves a significantly lower 2.14e-03 in both phases. These results indicate that both models demonstrate a strong fit to actual data, with R² values approaching 1, validating their reliability for short-term forecasting. Furthermore, ANFIS proves to be more effective in handling data nonlinearity and uncertainty, consistently yielding lower RMSE values in both the training and testing phases. Despite achieving higher predictive accuracy, ANFIS requires a longer computational time. While this study confirms ANFIS's superior performance in short-term wind power forecasting, its advantage over ANN is not guaranteed in all scenarios, as the effectiveness of the model remains dependent on the complexity of input data and the choice of training function.