Energy Consumption Prediction and Anomaly Detection for Boiler Feed Pump in Power Plant Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Abstract

Enhancing energy efficiency and operational reliability is crucial in power plant management, particularly for high-energy-consuming machines such as boiler feed water pumps (BFPs). These pumps play a vital role in the continuous generation of steam and electricity and must operate 24/7 to maintain power production stability. This study proposes the development of predictive models based on machine learning and deep learning techniques to accurately predict energy consumption and applies best models to detect anomalous behaviors in BFPs, enabling timely and preventive interventions. A dataset comprising 43,082 hourly records over five years, with 18 critical operational features, was analyzed using preprocessing and feature engineering techniques. Various predictive models were trained and evaluated, including Multiple Linear Regression, Regularized Regressions (Ridge, Lasso, ElasticNet), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree, Ensemble Methods (Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM), and Deep Learning Architectures (DNN, RNN, GRU, LSTM). Among these models, SVR demonstrated the highest accuracy (MSE: 13.5573, R²: 0.9838), followed closely by LightGBM. Feature importance analysis revealed that boiler feed pump discharge pressure and bearing housing vibration levels were the most influential variables in energy consumption prediction. Anomaly detection using the Interquartile Range (IQR) method classified deviations into two warning levels, enabling proactive maintenance strategies. Additionally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) web application was developed for real-time monitoring, integrating predictive models, anomaly detection, and an automated email alert system to assist operators in responding to abnormal energy consumption events promptly. These results highlight the potential of predictive analytics and real-time monitoring in optimizing power plant operations, providing a foundation for extending predictive capabilities to other critical energy-intensive systems.