A multi-period linear programming model for the natural gas distribution network of Thailand

Abstract

As a consequence of the impending gas shortages from sources in the Gulf of Thailand, the country will be obliged to switch to imports of LNG to achieve energy security. The gas system of Thailand is constructed as a mathematical model. In the simulation, the output shows that reserves gas of Thailand is insufficient to face the demand in 2015–2036, while the consumption of natural gas reserves continues at a rate that indicates that LNG imports will become the primary supply in the future to meet rising demand. The linear programming approach indicates patterns in the supply of gas which will see imports of LNG expanding at a rate lower than that predicted in the plan, thus undercutting the figures for the 2021 MMSCFD under the Gas Plan. The programming described in this study, however, may serve as the foundation for further examinations of Thailand’s situation regarding energy security.