Drought vulnerability assessment using morphometric features and extreme precipitation indicators to prioritize sub-basins: AI-based Fuzzy Logic approach

• Prioritized 9 sub-watersheds in the Sabarmati River Basin (SRB) using 28 morphometric parameters derived from ASTER DEM (90 m resolution) and GIS analysis. • Multi-criteria decision-making techniques (WSA, PCA, AHP, FAHP, TOPSIS) ranked SB7 with the lowest CF value (2.14), indicating the highest priority, while SB2–SB5 showed positive precipitation trends suitable for runoff enhancement. • 42 years of precipitation data analyzed using SPI revealed declining precipitation trends in SB1 (CF: 4.26), SB6 (CF: 3.85), and SB9 (CF: 3.72), making them drought-prone areas. • Proposed a robust framework to enhance runoff potential and support water conservation strategies, aiding sustainable management of SRB water resources. The identification of watersheds and extraction of drainage networks are essential for effective hydrological and geomorphological modelling. This study investigates the influence of morphometric factors and extreme precipitation events on the hydrological responses of the Sabarmati River Basin (SRB), India, to identify the drought-vulnerable sub-basins. Watershed prioritization was carried out using satellite remote sensing, GIS, and secondary data, including topographic sheets and ASTER DEM with a spatial resolution of 90 m. The SRB was divided into nine sub-watersheds, and 28 morphometric parameters were evaluated, comprising 07 linear, 15 areal, and 06 relief parameters. A compound factor (CF) was derived using multi-criteria decision-making techniques such as Weighted Sum Analysis (WSA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy-AHP (FAHP), and TOPSIS. Sub-watersheds were ranked based on CF value, where a lower CF indicated higher priority for runoff management strategies. Additionally, 42 years of precipitation data were analysed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at timescales ranging from 3 to 24 months to assess trends in drought and extreme precipitation events. The analysis indicate decline in runoff potential in several sub-basins, however others (e.g., SB2, SB3, SB4, SB5) exhibit positive precipitation trends, making them suitable for runoff enhancement. This integrated methodology offers a comprehensive framework for managing sub-basins, optimizing runoff potential, and supporting sustainable water conservation. The results provide actionable insights for policymakers and planners to better utilize the SRB water resources based on its geomorphological and climatic characteristics.