Climate thresholds and yield elasticity of durian, mangosteen, and coffee under hydroclimatic variability in Thailand

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dc.contributor.authorAnsari, Kutubuddin
dc.contributor.authorTanır Kayıkçı, Emine
dc.contributor.authorJamjareegulgarn, Punyawi
dc.date.accessioned2026-08-06T10:56:11Z
dc.date.available2026-08-06T10:56:11Z
dc.date.issued2026-08-01
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the empirical relationships between hydroclimatic variability and the yields of durian, mangosteen, and coffee across Thailand using meteorological observations from 56 stations and provincial level yield statistics for 2008 to 2024. An integrated statistical framework was applied, including exploratory correlation analysis, nonlinear quadratic additive modelling, lagged climate response analysis, elasticity estimation, model comparison, mangosteen regional sensitivity analysis, and a Climate Risk Index (CRI). The results show clear spatial gradients in temperature, humidity, and precipitation across the six agroclimatic regions of Thailand, broadly corresponding to regional crop productivity patterns. Annual anomaly analysis indicates that warm and humid years are generally associated with higher durian and mangosteen yields, whereas excessive rainfall and warming are associated with reduced coffee productivity. Pairwise linear correlations between annual climate variables and crop yields are generally weak, suggesting that simple linear models may not fully capture crop climate relationships. Nonlinear modelling indicates approximate empirical temperature turning points near 28.0°C for durian, 27.3°C for mangosteen, and 26.6°C for coffee, with humidity related turning points around 76–78%. Lagged climate response models suggest that multi-year hydroclimatic conditions may influence perennial crop productivity, particularly humidity for durian, precipitation for coffee, and temperature and precipitation for mangosteen. The mangosteen sensitivity analysis shows that humidity and precipitation thresholds are affected by regional composition, especially when marginal production regions are included. The CRI formulation under the equal weight, mangosteen shows the highest rainfall related climate risk signal, while coffee is more sensitive to temperature related risk and durian shows moderate vulnerability to prolonged humid and wet conditions.
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Agriculture and Food Research, 30, 2026
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jafr.2026.103144
dc.identifier.issn26661543
dc.identifier.other2-s2.0-105044440712
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.kmitl.ac.th/handle/123456789/18278
dc.sourceJournal of Agriculture and Food Research
dc.subjectClimate risk index
dc.subjectCoffee
dc.subjectDurian
dc.subjectHydroclimatic variability
dc.subjectMangosteen
dc.subjectThailand
dc.subjectYield sensitivity
dc.titleClimate thresholds and yield elasticity of durian, mangosteen, and coffee under hydroclimatic variability in Thailand
dc.typeArticle

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