KMITL

Permanent URI for this communityhttps://dspace.kmitl.ac.th/handle/123456789/1

Browse

Settings

Author: search.filters.author.Jamjareegulgarn, PunyawiSubject: search.filters.subject.Climate change

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Loading...
    Thumbnail Image
    Some of the metrics are blocked by your 
    consent settings
    Item type:Publication,
    Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation
    (2025-12-01)
    de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco
    ;
    Mendes, David
    ;
    Porto, Helder Dutra
    ;
    Cardoso, Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar
    ;
    Neto, José Augusto Ferreira
    Thailand is under threat from climate change, where extreme climate events are expected to intensify and increase in the coming decades. The objective is to assess extreme drought and rainfall events in Thailand based on climate modeling through an ensemble for future projections of extreme climate indices. The climate indices used were Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Maximum Number of Consecutive Summer Days (CSU), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), and Maximum Number of Consecutive Wet Days (WW) derived from simulations of an ensemble composed of six models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with the backpropagation method. The projections were based on three scenarios: historical (20th century); intermediate forcing (RCP 4.5) and high forcing (RCP 8.5). The results of the climate indices pointed to significant regional differences in Thailand. Historically, the CDD indicated 35 consecutive dry days in the northern (N) and northeastern (NE) parts of Thailand, whereas the southern region showed CDD values of fewer than 10 consecutive dry days. In the R4.5 scenario, a meridional pattern emerged in CDD, increasing from east (E) to west (W). In the R8.5 scenario, the number of consecutive dry days increased across the entire country. The WSDI stood out in both the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, with an increase in the duration of warm spells in Thailand. The CSU did not perform satisfactorily in the scenarios adopted. Historically, the CWD indicated consecutive wet days in the N and NE, whereas in the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, this was observed only in the Central and Southern regions. Historically, the maximum number of consecutive rainy days varied in the NE and South via WW. In the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, there was a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive rainy days across Thailand. Projections based on climate indices indicate that Thailand needs to adopt mitigation measures across its regions to neutralize the impacts of extreme drought and rainfall events on socioeconomic sectors, particularly in tourism, industry, agricultural production, and food security for its population.
  • Loading...
    Thumbnail Image
    Some of the metrics are blocked by your 
    consent settings
    Item type:Publication,
    Decadal and seasonal oceanographic trends influenced by climate changes in the Gulf of Thailand
    (2025-06-01)
    Lubis, Muhammad Zainuddin
    ;
    Ghazali, Muhammad
    ;
    Simanjuntak, Andrean V.H.
    ;
    Riama, Nelly F.
    ;
    Pasma, Gumilang R.
    Our study investigates the decadal and seasonal variability of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) using data from CMEMS from 1993 to 2021. We employed statistical analyses utilizing GLM and GAM to assess the variables comprehensively. The reveals a significant upward trend in SSH, increasing from ∼0.79 m in 1993–1998 to ∼0.89 m in 2017–2021, highlighting the impacts of climate change. SST analysis revealed fluctuations, with a maximum reaching ∼30.6 °C in 2019–2020, correlating with climatic events such as El Niño. Our study results at station 1 (near Bangkok) showed that the average SSH in 1998 during strong El Niño years was equal to 0.82 m, while the maximum SST was equal to 29.89 °C. Seasonal patterns indicated SSH peaks in DJF and SON at ∼0.92 m, while SST peaked in spring MAM and summer JJA at ∼30.7 °C. Volume transport analysis showed significant variability, with 0.3634 Sv (0–55 m) at longitude 99°E-107° E and latitude 6° N, indicating complex circulation patterns influenced by bathymetry and wind. Time series analysis revealed an average SSH increase of 0.0038 m/year, with a high pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. Our findings underscore the critical influence of climate variability on oceanographic conditions in the GoT, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring to address the implications of rising sea levels and temperature fluctuations. In conjunction with increased SSH, the rising SST heightens the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, exacerbating vulnerabilities for local populations and necessitating adaptive management strategies to mitigate these impacts.