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    Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in Thailand, 1990-2020
    (2022-07-19)
    Thailand is a net energy importer that has steadily increased the demand for energy over the past several decades. But there has not been a systematic analysis of the energy demand change factors. Therefore, in this study, a decomposition analysis was applied to determine the major driving forces of the changes in energy use from the years 1990-2020. The analysis period covered a regional financial crisis known in Thailand as the “Tom Yum Kung” crisis in 1997-1998 and a global pandemic COVID-19 in 2020. The analysis results showed that the value-added of economic sectors is the most important factor in requiring more energy, while energy intensity is the most important factor in reducing energy consumption. Therefore, increasing the value-added of productions and enhancing the energy efficiency more stringent will lead to a decoupling of energy consumption against GDP and sooner peak demand of energy in Thailand.
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    Energy Demand Modeling for the Eastern Economic Corridor of Thailand: A Case Study of Rayong Province
    (2022-03-20)
    Lunsamrong, Chanidaporn
    ;
    This paper assesses long-term energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Rayong Province which is one of the three provinces in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) of Thailand. LEAP (the low emissions analysis platform) is used to project final energy demand for each economic sector by using the 2019 data as a base year. In the model, we defined the energy consumption into two scenarios; a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a low carbon scenario (LCS), to see different energy demand and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions up to the year 2050. There are different assumptions between BAU and LCS in each sector such as energy efficiency improvement, shift to modern energy, the share of high energy-efficient vehicles, etc. In the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption needed by Rayong Province will increase with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 3.49%, while only 1.52% for the LCS. CO<inf>2</inf> emissions in the LCS will be reduced by 41.7% by 2050 when compared with the BAU scenario. Most interestingly, even though energy demand in Rayong Province will be increasing up to 2050, CO<inf>2</inf> emissions will peak about 2035 and then reduce. The industry and transport sectors are the most final energy consumption and the highest CO<inf>2</inf> emissions. This is because EEC is driven by a production-based economy. The solution for this is to transform to alternative energies sourcing, shift all productions to sustainable ones, restructure the industrial estate to become the eco-industrial and GHG emissions management, which will also result in obvious carbon reduction. This kind of information will be beneficial to energy demand conservation and GHG emission mitigation at the provincial level which will depend on the energy policies initiated and implemented in the future.
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    Integrated Urban Transport and Land-Use Policies in Reducing CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption: Case Study of a Medium-Sized City in Thailand
    (2024-08-01)
    Chindaprasirt, Prinya
    ;
    Klungboonkrong, Pongrid
    ;
    Jaensirisak, Sittha
    ;
    Faiboun, Natthapoj
    ;
    Long, Sina
    In developing cities, transport activities have become one of the primary sources of CO<inf>2</inf> emissions and energy consumption owing to rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization. Khon Kaen City, Thailand, was chosen as a representative mid-sized city of a developing country to investigate the potential influences of transit-oriented development (TOD), light rail transit (LRT), and electric vehicle (EV) policy integration scenarios on CO<inf>2</inf> emission and energy consumption reductions in 2016, 2026, and 2046. The TOD did not significantly reduce CO<inf>2</inf> emissions or energy consumption because it was only applied in one area of the city. The LRT development also had a small effect because of the small proportion of modal shifts to LRT. However, EV utilization offered the greatest potential for reducing both CO<inf>2</inf> emissions and energy consumption. In addition, the integrated scenario combining the three policies had a promising effect, diminishing both CO<inf>2</inf> emissions and energy consumption, because it gathered the potential merits and benefits of each individual policy.
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    LEAP-based energy demand and emissions modelling for low-carbon transport in Khon Kaen province, Thailand
    (2026-03-01)
    Woraratch, Kullayawan
    ;
    Klungboonkrong, Pongrid
    ;
    Climate change mitigation in Thailand requires urgent transformation of energy-intensive sectors, notably transport in rapidly urbanizing provinces. Khon Kaen, a central economic hub in northeastern Thailand, faces increasing energy demand and transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions driven by rising private vehicle ownership and limited public transit integration. This study applies the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model long-term energy demand and GHG emissions under two scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low-Carbon Scenario (LCS). A bottom-up vehicle stock turnover approach was combined with socioeconomic projections to simulate transport energy consumption from 2024 to 2050. The LCS integrates electric vehicle (EV) promotion, expansion of Light Rail Transit (LRT), Double-Track Rail (DTR) and High-Speed Rail (HSR), and implementation of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) strategies. Results show that, compared with BAU, the LCS can reduce transport-related GHG emissions by 62.9% by 2050 and final energy demand by 43.5%, reflecting a substantial shift from fossil fuels toward electricity and biofuels. Under the LCS, adoption of EVs is projected to reach 100% of new passenger car sales by 2050, supported by the electrification of rail transport and decreased Vehicle Kilometres Travelled through TOD-based planning. These findings confirm that locally calibrated, integrated transport and land-use measures can significantly support Thailand’s national targets for carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero emissions by 2065. The modelling framework may potentially transferable to other mid-sized cities and provides evidence-based guidance for low-carbon urban transport planning.
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    Energy demand modeling for low carbon cities in Thailand: A case study of Nakhon Ratchasima province
    (2023-07-01) ;
    Teungchai, Kattreeya
    ;
    Fukuda, Atsushi
    Nakhon Ratchasima is one of the northeastern cities which has been promoted as one of the low-carbon cities in Thailand. The study aims to evaluate policies and measures on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation to meet the target at the provincial level. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used as a modeling tool to simulate energy demand for each economic sector. The 2019 data is set as a base year, using top-down and bottom-up approaches depending on the availability of data for the analysis. The model consists of two scenarios: (1) Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and Low carbon scenario (LCS). Transport and industry sectors are the most energy-consuming and CO2-emitting sectors in Nakhon Ratchasima Province. In the LCS case, the final energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2050 will be reduced by about 40% compared to the BAU case. In addition, CO2 emissions in Nakhon Ratchasima Province will peak around 2038, this is not the case with BAU. The study could predict future energy demand and propose a way forward to reducing GHG emissions at the provincial level.