Land Use Classification, Prediction, and the Relationship Between Land Use and Sediment Loss in the Lam Phra Phlong Watershed, Thailand

Abstract

This study aims to assess the evolution of land cover in the Lam Phra Phloeng (LPP) watershed and predict future land use patterns. By employing the Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) and several spectral indices, high classification accuracy (>92%) was achieved using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Based on classified land use maps from 2003 and 2023, future land use predictions for 2030, and 2050 were generated using the CA-Markov chain model. The predictions suggest a gradual trend toward deforestation and the expansion of croplands, driven by population growth and increased anthropogenic activity in the region. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model, part of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) suite, was used to simulate soil loss in the LPP watershed. The results indicate minimal soil loss in vegetated areas and significant erosion in regions adjacent to water bodies, primarily due to rainfall erosivity. This research highlights the social, ecological, and economic implications of land use change. Furthermore, best management practices (BMPs) are identified as effective strategies for land restoration and erosion reduction. The study also discusses three widely adopted soil erosion control techniques, providing recommendations for reforestation and erosion mitigation programmes.